Tariffs Only 50% Effective, Economy Still Fully Confused
KEY POINTS
- •Researchers Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman found 2025 US tariffs had an actual rate of 14%, not 27% as announced.
- •Factors like shipment lags, exclusions of semiconductors, the USMCA trade deal, and enforcement issues caused the tariff gap.
- •San Francisco Fed economists said tariffs might lower inflation but could increase unemployment due to reduced demand and uncertainty.
In a stunning twist worthy of a Christopher Nolan plot, top brainiacs Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman revealed that the 2025 US tariff hammer isn’t actually hammering nearly as hard as the Trump-era hype promised. Instead of a whopping 27%, importers paid a modest 14%—less than half the roar but still enough to cause business palpitations. How? Shipment lags, mysterious exemptions for hot stuff like semiconductors, USMCA loopholes, plus good old-fashioned evasion. Despite the whispers of doom, tariffs may cool inflation while launching unemployment into awkward midair dance moves. Meanwhile, economists warn: todays’ globalized economy might flip the script—making these tame tariffs prime suspects for future inflation drama.
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Tariffs in 2025 turned out like a drama queen who barely shows up to the party but still ruins the vibe with confusing side-eyes at everyone else’s snacks.
Turns out the U.S. tariff policy is like that gym membership you never use; costs way more in theory than effect in reality.
Someone told importers about 27% tariffs but apparently some shipments got lost in transit like my life's ambitions.
Source: Axios | Published: 1/6/2026 | Author: Courtenay Brown
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