Fed's Rate Drama: December Cuts or Central Bank Soap Opera?

KEY POINTS

•New York Fed president John Williams hinted Friday at an interest rate cut planned for December 9-10 during a Chile conference.
•Following Williams' remarks, futures predicted a 73% chance of a rate cut, up from just 39% the day before.
•Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee expressed caution on too many rate cuts despite expecting rates to settle lower.
•Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan said cutting rates again in December would require clear inflation or labor market cooling.

In what feels like the Federal Reserve's version of a telenovela, New York Fed President John Williams dropped a bomb at Chile's Central Bank Centennial Conference on Friday, signaling a near-certain interest rate cut on December 9-10. His melodramatic line, 'room for further adjustment' sent CME Fedwatch odds blasting from 39% to a whopping 73%, making stock markets puff their chests with a 0.4% rally by 10am ET. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee played the anxious neighbor worrying about 'front-loading too many rate cuts'—a phrase awkwardly formal for 'slow your roll.' And just to spice up Channel FOMC, Dallas Fed’s Lorie Logan from Zurich reminded everyone hawks aren't extinct unless inflation or labor go full ice age. Central bank leadership is officially complicating economic messaging like a reality show reunion.