Fed Cuddles Beveridge Curve While Jobs Play Jenga
Since 2000 (minus the COVID freakout), the U.S. labor market's been playing a weird game of job openings vs. unemployment called the Beveridge Curve — thanks, British economist William Beveridge from the 1940s, proving good ideas hang around longer than your leftover takeout. From 2022 to 2024, employers slipped job postings like a clumsy bartender pouring drinks, barely jacking up unemployment until August 2024 where both sat at 4.3%—the dreaded kink where job cuts suddenly mean 'bye-bye job security.' SGH Macro’s Tim Duy warns this fragile moment is like balancing a yak on a seesaw while the Fed’s chopping interest rates trying not to plunge into a recession slip-n-slide. Meanwhile, Indeed’s Job Postings Index has already dropped 2.5% since late September, so grab your life jackets, folks.
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The labor market’s kinked Beveridge Curve is basically a economic 'choose your adventure' where one wrong job cut and unemployment spikes faster than your last TikTok addiction.
Employers hitting pause on job postings is like that friend who quietly deletes you from socials — you don’t notice at first, but suddenly you’re ghosted into unemployment.
The Fed cutting rates while inflation parties is like putting a Band-Aid on a simmering house fire and wondering why the smoke alarm’s annoyed.
Source: Axios | Published: 10/6/2025 | Author: Neil Irwin
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