Turkey Price War 2025: Birds Fight Back, Wallets Cry

KEY POINTS

  • •Avian flu decimated 1.3 million turkeys since October, mostly in Minnesota and nearby states.
  • •Wholesale turkey prices have surged 40% to $1.73 per pound, while retail prices paradoxically dropped 25 cents per pound.
  • •Retail giants Walmart, Aldi, Kroger, Lidl, and Target offer Thanksgiving meal bundles around $4 per person, trimming items or swapping cheaper brands.
  • •National Turkey Federation CEO Leslee Oden confirmed turkeys serve as loss leaders as retailers battle to retain customers amid an affordability crisis.

In 2025's Thanksgiving Battle Royale, American turkeys are hitting their smallest population in 40 years—thank avian flu for the carnage, with 1.3 million birds wiped out mostly in Minnesota. Meanwhile, frozen turkey wholesale prices are soaring 40% to $1.73 per pound, yet retail consumers pay 25 cents less per pound; apparently grocers are playing the classic 'loss leader' move to sucker you in and then upsell wine and decor. Walmart, Aldi, Kroger, Lidl, and Target are duking it out with bundle deals feeding 10 people for about $4 each, shaving down items or swapping in cheaper store brands to seem generous-ish. National Turkey Federation’s CEO Leslee Oden admits turkeys are 'the loss leader on the Thanksgiving table,' proving even egg-laying birds can’t compete with spreadsheet savagery as retail giants wage the 'most aggressive pricing environment since the pandemic.'

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Source: Axios | Published: 11/15/2025 | Author: Kelly Tyko