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Trump Turns US Oil Boom into Venezuela Baton for Global Power Walk

KEY POINTS

  • President Trump is leveraging the US oil production boom, now at nearly 14 million barrels per day, to strengthen foreign policy.
  • Despite enthusiasm, companies hesitate to invest heavily in Venezuela due to modest oil prices and political instability.
  • An upcoming White House meeting between Trump and oil executives aims to address these challenges and opportunities.

In a plot twist as subtle as a refinery explosion, President Trump is flexing America's shale-fueled muscle—now nearly 14 million barrels a day, triple the 2007 level of 5 million—to intimidate Venezuela, whose oil output limps behind at just 800,000-1 million bpd. Oil historian Dan Yergin calls the shale revolution a confidence booster, while API CEO Mike Sommers prudently reminds us the thirst still exists for future reserves elsewhere. Despite Trump's bulldog desire to 'capture Venezuela’s leader' and the allure of oil investments, Wood Mackenzie warns about modest prices and geopolitical headwinds in risky spots like Libya. Oil analyst Ellen Wald points out Venezuela's $60 per barrel breakeven is about as profitable as selling timeshares on the sun, especially since Trump’s strategy chaotically Earth-slams prices downward—great for drivers, less so for shareholders. Even with Trump dangling carrot and bombs, hesitation reigns; industry loves US shale but gazes nervously at Venezuela’s complex political theater, wondering if any future administration eventually pulls the plug. Meanwhile, a Friday pow-wow between Trump and oil execs promises drama, confusion, and possibly more fracked optimism than a Texas BBQ.

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Source: Axios | Published: 1/9/2026 | Author: Ben Geman