ChatGPT Crashes Economist Party, Finishes Exactly Average at Fortune-Telling
KEY POINTS
- â˘David Seifâs seventh annual forecasting contest started in late 2024 with 160 human contestants and ChatGPT entering for the first time.
- â˘Contestants predicted 30 events ranging from Taylor Swiftâs engagement news to whether Bulgaria would adopt the euro by July 1, 2025.
- â˘ChatGPT ranked 80th with a points score higher than random guessing, struggling with new info but excelling in data-rich predictions.
In the 2025 forecasting contest run by economist David Seif, featuring a secret cabal of hedge fund managers, tech execs, and fate-fixated folks, ChatGPT made its debut. Armed with rules spanning multiple pages and a weird golf-style penalty system punishing overconfidence to the tune of 8,100 points, ChatGPT produced percentage predictions for 30 events including Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce engagements and Bulgariaâs euro ambitions. Despite impressing with legit math on NFL wild card odds, ChatGPT ended 80th out of 160, scored worse than a coin toss (82,925 vs. 75,000 points), and apparently missed key news like astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmoreâs delayed rescue. Yet hedge fund director Sam Leffell points out ChatGPT churned all this out in minutes while humans mulled it over for days, making it the speed king of meh forecasting.
Share the Story
ChatGPT enters forecasting contest, finishes smack dab in the middle. AIâs crystal ball apparently has smudges, same as your clueless uncleâs.
ChatGPTâs predictions were so average it couldâve been written by a committee of buzzed party guests throwing darts at a calendar.
When an AI canât beat 80 humans out of 160, I guess we should update the software or lower humanityâs barâwhicheverâs easier.
Source: Businessinsider | Published: 12/5/2025 | Author: Alistair Barr
More Articles in Technology
America Adds 50,000 Jobs, But Those 70,000 Stayed Home for Holidays
Sydney Sweeney's $1M Flop, Trump-Approved Jeans & Bathwater Soap Fiasco
CES 2026: The Worldâs Largest Tech Flex in the Las Vegas Desert
Lego Adds Smart Bricks So Kids Can Pretend Tech Problems Are Part Of Play
Meta Orders Reality Labs 'Most Important' Meeting After Billions Burned
Towerborne Ditches Online, Proves Even Games Prefer Alone Time
CES Debuts Smart Hair Clippers That Cut Nothing but Your Patience
